7/16/2023 0 Comments Superflex dynasty trade calculatorWhy would that be? Well, if you have a deep bench, you can afford to put more rookies on your roster and wait for them to develop, so there is less pressure on you getting your picks right. To say it one more way, they are inversely related. That is, as your roster size increases, the values decrease. Roster Size - The pick values are indirectly proportional to your roster size. The influence of each of these factors is complex, but I will attempt to give you a more intuitive feel for the tool as you start to take it for a test drive. I will tell you that the following factors contribute to the Dynasty Factor in some way: Rather than have everyone see the mathematical analysis and details of the "Secret Sauce", I will lay out some of the proportional relationships for the Dynasty Factor that you will see when you first start to use it. It can be used to compare different dynasty leagues with different rosters and starters, and gives an independent value to each league. The Dynasty Factor is the numerical value for your entire league, and it represents how valuable your draft picks are for your league. What I have done is rather complicated, but I have rolled all these numerous factors into a secret formula that produces a single number that I have labeled the "Dynasty Factor". First is career length, but what about the league itself? How many teams are there? How big or small is the roster? How deep is the bench? How many starters? What matters, and by how much? There are a few different variables that enter in to calculation of a pick value for a multi-year league. Table 1 - Average Career Length of NFL Players the dynasty factor The data may vary by round (and that would be an interesting study), but for the purposes of pick calculations I have assumed that all NFL rookies have the same expected length of career associated with their position. The chart is the length of an average NFL career regardless of the round they were drafted, or even if they were an undrafted player. Now, many would question the validity of using that data, as some would say that there is no way to predict the length of a selected player's career or that a first rounder may last longer than a fourth round selection, but that is precisely why I selected that chart. ![]() The second resource I needed was to answer the natural follow-up question, "how many years?" With the help of fellow Footballguys, I found a study performed at Dartmouth University regarding the average career length of an NFL player, both in aggregate and also broken down by position. The value of each pick factors in that the selected player is supposed to play for their club for years. This chart is the most useful one to dynasty league players, since the NFL is in essence a dynasty league. The first was the only multi-year valuation chart that I know of that exists - the NFL Draft Pick Chart, which gives a numerical value to every pick in the NFL Draft. To attempt a solution to this problem, I sought out two different sources of information. That is the essence of the problem - how do you quantify a multi-year value? ![]() In a redraft league, you are essentially posing the question of "how will Player X help me over the next few months?" In dynasty leagues, that question is in terms of years rather than months, as you keep players multiple seasons (perhaps their entire career). ![]() So how can you adequately calculate what a draft pick is worth in these formats?įirst, you have to understand the difference between dynasty leagues and redraft leagues. Unfortunately for leagues that span multiple years, these calculators have little or no value. Calculators abound, including our very own David Dodds' Calculator found here. Since the dawn of trading draft picks, everyone has tried to determine the "fair value" for a particular selection. Quick reference: You may download the calculator here.
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